Is there a big canary in the mine’s financial pipes?

Considering the increase in US long rates (both nominal and real ones) over the last few weeks, the ongoing disinflation process and the renewed strength of the greenback lately, gold prices in USD have proved more resilient than expected so far this year. Especially if you remember what happened during the tapper tantrum in 2013… […]

Navigating through a CCC backdrop (Confusing, Contradictory & Challenging)

While China is facing structural risks from the 3Ds of Debt, Demographics and Deflation as recently coined by Morgan Stanley, the macro backdrop could be defined as CCC with economic data sending Confusing and somewhat Contradictory messages in an overall still Challenging context. Let’s take the latest US data released on Friday. Beyond the upside […]

Is this economy different?

In general, seasoned investors are wary when they hear or read somewhere that “this time is different”. Interestingly, there have been plenty of articles in the financial press lately about China turning eventually Japanese. With weakening growth and inflation already nearing 0%, the current 2nd largest world economy seems indeed on the brink of experiencing […]

The greenback may bend but it won’t break

DECALIA Market Updates by Fabrizio Quirighetti, CIO and Head of Multi-Asset Let’s start first by trying to explain the recent USD depreciation against most major currencies. It is basically due to the dollar smile phenomenon, observed about 20 years ago by Stephen Li Jen: the USD tends to outperform other currencies in two extremely different […]

Should I join or stay (away)?

Last week I spoke about the overall resilience of US economy and the unexpectedly strong US equity performance, driven mainly by just a handful mega-tech stocks until recently, which has taken the vast majority of investors (including your humble servitor) by surprise. I tried to explain the reasons in retrospect (unfortunately): too light positioning & […]

Is this time different?

Cagliari Calcio finally made it to qualify for Serie A next season by beating Bari yesterday evening with an incredibly miraculous  goal at the 94’, which turned into a freezing kill-joy for the 60’000 attendees of the San Nicola stadium. As Yogi Berra would say: it ain’t over ‘till it’s over! For sure, it looks […]

007 ways to benefit from Bond’s comeback

Heading into the right direction, but there is still a long way to go. So, it’s too early to claim victory as “it ain’t over till it’s over”. These sentences may apply to inflationary pressures, as well as the US debt ceiling saga or… the Cagliari Calcio! Yes, my dear readers, after more than 200 […]

TINA is still hanging around actually

So far, so good! Both US companies’ earnings and economy continued to defy downbeat investors’ expectations (included mine) last week. However, as I mentioned one week ago, US equity remains at risk due to its historical and relative stretched valuation, especially in case of any disappointments down on the road (weaker growth, margin compression, regional […]