Category: Market updates by Fabrizio
A Fed’s rate cut in September rate is still far from guaranteed, in my views, especially after last week’s releases of US CPI and PPI reports, which showed that supercore inflation remains stubbornly high, running at 4% yoy and 3.8% a.r. over last 3M, while companies are passing some tariff costs on to consumers. In […]
US growth is slowing, while inflation is rising. Despite the rosy US Q2 GDP print, the growth details weren’t so great when excluding the extraordinary distortions due to the tariffs’ saga: final domestic demand (i.e. consumption expenditures and capex) is running at about 1.5% a.r. in the first half of this year vs. a quite […]
Since President Trump continues to act like a sheriff in order to restore law and order in the economic and financial markets, let’s look at the impact of his decisions and measures through the lens of my favorite Western film. First quarter US GDP growth headline was poor (-0.5%), but the details were not so […]
Forget about the August 1st trade deadline… but beware of the incoming flood of economic data. It seems indeed that Trump’s tariff saga is finally coming to an end as another key trade “deal” was struck yesterday between the US and the EU. This agreement (how could you reasonably conclude a complete and detailed trade […]
There are 2 important pieces of news this morning. The first one is Oklahoma City Thunder won the NBA championship title for the first time as they defeated the Indiana Pacers in Game 7 of the NBA Finals last night. An impressively tied & undecisive series won by a young but true and mature team… […]
Today’s my editorial title is a reference to the Public Enemy 1990’s hit song (911 is a joke), which still resonates 35 years later… So get up, get, get, get down. 899 is a joke in yo town. As the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is currently debated and will likely be amended in the […]
Welcome to June! Looking back, I hope you didn’t sell in May -or at least not at the very beginning of last month as the US S&P500 index just experienced its best month of May since… 1990. The 2 main reasons behind the surprising sharp rebound of risk-on assets have been (1) a much better […]
No miracle for the Cagliari Calcio -and subsequently for Inter Milan fans- last Friday evening as my favorite team lost “logically” against the Napoli. However, its “sustainability” in Serie A was already in the cards. The sustainability story has been somewhat less rosy as far as US government debt is concerned last week on the […]
Let’s start with the good news… Cagliari Calcio will remain in Serie A next season after a brilliant 3-0 victory against Venezia yesterday, concluded by a splendid 3rd goal. Before that we got the US-China “deal” agreement in Geneva last week, which basically brings a 90 days relief and renewed hopes for a long-term deal […]
The chaos over US tariffs that Donald Trump and his administration unleashed since their infamous “Liberation Days” has raised fundamental questions about the risk premium on US assets, especially on US Treasuries, and the role of the US dollar within the global economy and international financial system. The continuous ascent of gold is among the […]
Apart my birthday and a spring-like weather, there was not much to celebrate recently… The announcement of reciprocal tariffs was worse than expected, both in terms of the percentages announced (higher than expected) and the method of calculation (a simplistic and arbitrary formula that further discredits the Trump administration), stock markets have been falling ever […]
