Let’s speak about another peak

For the last few months, investors have been focused essentially on peak inflation and peak terminal rates, but little attention has been devoted to peak cycle since last summer as the soft landing and even the no-landing scenarios were almost taken for granted. However, the latest events, namely the collapse of SVB (and 2 other […]

Bonds are back… as well as active management

For close to 40 years until recently, it has been a fantastic call to be long bond’s duration, especially through passive ETF’s investment in order to keep duration constantly high. For sure, we experienced a secular bond bull market with US 10y yield falling from circa 16% at the beginning of the 80’s to a […]

Quantitative tightening? What tightening?

As expected, Fed and ECB hiked last week their respective target rate by +25bps to 4.50-4.75% and by +50bps to 2.50%, while France beats Italy in the 6 Nations tournament (rugby) yesterday but it wasn’t as smooth and easy for the “coqs bleus”. Despite the still hawkish message they delivered and their overall cautiousness about […]

Fumble ahead!

Yesterday night, the Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs of Patrick Mahomes won their ticket to the Super Bowl LVII (NFL -American football league- final) by beating the San Francisco 49ers and the Cincinnati Bengals respectively. The Super Bowl will take place on February 12th, in Phoenix, with Rihanna taking care of the always […]

10 predictions for 2023 (part 2)

Here are the key takeaways: Last week, I shared with you my first 5 out of 10 predictions that could shape financial markets and portfolio returns this year. As we enter 2023 -and as a reminder-, our central macro scenario may be summed up as “less growth (but no hard landing), sticky inflation and higher […]