The Kangaroo’s jump

The latest US employment report put a dent in the Fed’s pivot narrative with somewhat higher than expected nonfarm payrolls (+199k, in line with the last 6 months average) and, more importantly, a lower unemployment rate (-0.2% to 3.7% in November). Indeed, this decline in unemployment rate invalidated, at least theoretically, a recession signal from […]

Beware of the Grinch

Latest US data and some Fed members statements reinforced the current optimistic views made of resilient growth and ongoing disinflation. Consumers income and spending are indeed still expanding, manufacturing activity is holding well according to latest ISM, while the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, the PCE deflator, decelerated further in October. The headline reading was actually […]

Viva Italia & Santa’s Goldisocks

Welcome to December (at the end of the week)! A month often associated with a sense of warmth and joy as people around the world come together to celebrate various holidays and festivities… on top of this year of the recent successes of Italy with its credit outlook raised from negative to stable by Moody’s, […]

Year-end rally on track

With the US government shutdown averted (for now), Italy government debt no longer in an imminent danger of a cut to junk at Moody’s (outlook was raised from negative to stable) and the qualification of the Nati (Swiss soccer team) for Euro 2024, I am wondering what could derail global equity markets to end the […]

More questions than answers at this juncture

With the end of the year just around the corner if you consider Christmas decorations as a leading indicator, it’s already time to think about the macro scene and markets outlook for 2024. As you all know “it is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future”. So, I would love to receive a new […]

Trick or Treat?

At the time this letter will hit your screen I will be on holiday. While I will obviously enjoy it and benefit fully from my days off treat, I am somewhat concerned about the many tricks that markets may play to frighten investors during my absence as a busy data-packed week await us. In the […]

Please, don’t mess up!

In a week overshadowed by the geopolitical tensions in the Middle-East after the terrorist attack from Hamas in Israel, the IMF’s latest economic outlook, released last week during the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Marrakesh, went almost unnoticed. While it wasn’t obviously as tragic as many events currently unfolding around us, […]

Something has changed

I think I have had another calling, like in the Netflix series “Manifest” (see my weekly letter of August 22nd, 2022), as I was feeling and I have thus argued that something was changing or has changed for some time now… Actually, it all started at the end of last year when I did a […]

Is there a big canary in the mine’s financial pipes?

Considering the increase in US long rates (both nominal and real ones) over the last few weeks, the ongoing disinflation process and the renewed strength of the greenback lately, gold prices in USD have proved more resilient than expected so far this year. Especially if you remember what happened during the tapper tantrum in 2013… […]

Navigating through a CCC backdrop (Confusing, Contradictory & Challenging)

While China is facing structural risks from the 3Ds of Debt, Demographics and Deflation as recently coined by Morgan Stanley, the macro backdrop could be defined as CCC with economic data sending Confusing and somewhat Contradictory messages in an overall still Challenging context. Let’s take the latest US data released on Friday. Beyond the upside […]