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The calm before the storm

Markets have gone nowhere over the last few days, with equity indices, long rates and major forex crosses experiencing contained daily variations and an overall sideways trading after a strong start of the year for both equity and bond investors. That’s certainly a symptom of a lack of conviction among them about what comes next […]

Small is insightful

There are several signs that the most acute part of the US banking turmoil may be behind us: markets have rebounded, the VIX is back to its lowest level since January 2022 (17.1), the amount of bank lending from the Fed emergency lending facilities has declined, US bank deposits are increasing again after weeks of […]

Stuck in the middle… with TATA

It hasn’t really been a love affair on markets since the release of the US CPI on the Saint-Valentine’s day, which was then followed by stronger than expected activity indicators. As we were suspecting last week, better than expected US activity data have pushed long rates higher, while sticky inflation has forced some investment banks […]

10 predictions for 2023 (part 1)

Happy New Year and Best Wishes for a healthy and investment successful 2023! I suspect that experiencing a boring year will already do most of the trick. As we start a new year, I have polished my crystal ball in order to make 10 predictions that could shape financial markets and portfolio returns in 2023. […]