Category: Market updates by Fabrizio
Over the past few months, the macroeconomic narrative has shifted significantly. At the start of the year, investors broadly expected a gradual cooling of the US economy, a weakening labor market, and a continued disinflationary process as the effects of tariffs faded from annual comparisons. That scenario now looks increasingly outdated. Recent US economic data […]
Now that the Serie A season is drawing to a close and Cagliari Calcio has officially secured survival after yesterday’s 2-1 victory against Torino, it is time to look ahead… And there will be no shortage of sporting distractions over the coming weeks: the ATP Gonet Geneva Open, followed by Roland-Garros, the NBA Finals, the […]
Let me reassure you right away: this week, I am not going to talk about Cagliari Calcio, which still isn’t officially safe from relegation after its undeserved loss 0-2 against Udinese, the conflict in Iran and its consequences on energy flows and prices (73 days long already and still counting), nor about the anthrax virus, […]
Markets, much like sports, have a habit of humbling consensus views just when confidence appears strongest. In Italian Serie A football, Cagliari is all but safe from relegation following its impressive and unexpected victory over Atalanta (3-2) and its well-deserved draw against Bologna (0-0). In the NBA, the past few days have delivered a similar […]
In the mid-2000s, the figure of the “Polish plumber” became a powerful symbol in the French and UK public debate, embodying fears linked to globalization and the enlargement of the European Union. An estimated two million workers from Eastern and Central Europe arrived between 2003 and 2007 in the UK, half of them were Polish. […]
We aren’t yet out of the woods. That’s true both for the Cagliari Calcio, who lost logically against Inter on Friday evening, as well as for the energy shock resulting from the conflict in Iran. However, in both cases, the relief observed since the previous week-end thanks to the victory against Cremonese and the fragile […]
Apocalypse Not Now! We’ve avoided the worst in two ways—at least for now! First, because even though this weekend’s negotiations came to nothing, other than an even stricter U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz aimed at economically suffocating Iran, we’ve at least avoided the immediate destruction of a civilization… Second, because Cagliari won a […]
The energy crisis is deepening as fighting in the Middle East intensifies. Iran has proven more resilient than expected, effectively managing a difficult situation with a government that remains organized and cohesive. By refusing to pursue de-escalation, Tehran is increasing pressure on the United States. The well-known “TACO trade” (“Trump Always Chickens Out”) may not […]
Economic Calendar While developments surrounding the war in Iran and its collateral damage on the Strait of Hormuz’s blockade, the potential damages to Kharg Island energy infrastructure and, above all, the energy prices trajectory will likely continue to steal the show, there will still be a few interesting economic data releases this week. They will […]
Surprises, surprises seem the norm nowadays. After 10 days of vacation, I found once again everything turned upside down when I got back to the office last week as we now find ourselves in the middle of the Iranian conflict. For better or for worse, the surprises extend to sports with Italy’s victory over England […]
The US Supreme Court ruled last Friday that the President cannot use “emergency” authority to impose tariffs at will (i.e. the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose broad based tariffs is unconstitutional). While that’s a great victory for the “rule of law” and thus somewhat reassuring politically speaking, it brings […]
