Category: Market updates by Fabrizio
In July 2008, the ECB raised its key rate by 25bps, arguing that inflation had become the top concern of European citizens as oil prices were spiking. Two months later, Lehman Brothers collapsed and the world plunged into its worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. The ECB and its infamous President, Jean-Claude Trichet, did […]
Last week’s rate decisions were really a story about tone, perception and thus credibility, as much as policy. The Fed delivered the hawkish decision markets had been braced for and then some: a 25bp hike to 3.75%–4.00%, its first increase since July 2023, passed by a unanimous 12-0 vote, a decision that came unanimously according […]
I’m on holiday this week and hadn’t planned on writing anything this morning. But between Cagliari’s start to the season and what’s about to happen at the Fed (and the BoJ, for that matter), the circumstances struck me as exceptional enough to warrant a few lines anyway. As I write this, interest rates aren’t the […]
Equities and credit are trading near their highs, but above that apparent calm hangs at least one genuinely uncomfortable thread: energy prices. The trigger isn’t hypothetical as the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively paralyzed since end of February, with daily tankers crossings down from about 60 to basically none, Gulf crude exports divided by […]
Sometimes the scoreline lies. Yesterday’s Serie A clash between Cagliari and Inter ended in a narrow, almost respectable 1-0 defeat for my beloved team. The kind of result that, taken at face value, suggests a tight, competitive affair. Dig into the underlying numbers, however, and a far less flattering picture emerges: 31 shots, 7 on […]
Last week, in Sticky Rates Despite Slippery Growth, we flagged a puzzle: US data was turning noticeably gentler (weak July payrolls print, in-line and reassuring CPI, and a surprise drop in July retail sales), yet the 10y Treasury yield refused to budge from its highs. If anything, the picture has grown more stubborn since. The […]
Three weeks ago, in Beware of Certainties (27 July), we flagged how hard it had become to hold tactical convictions on rates, with investors pricing in two Fed hikes before year-end on the back of persistent inflation concerns with hardly anyone contemplating a hard landing. Since then, the data flow has told a more nuanced […]
The second-quarter US GDP print looked, at first glance, like a disappointment: growth came in at just +1.5% annualized. But headline numbers can be poor storytellers. Strip out the noise, and the US economy is not slowing… It is accelerating where it matters most. US Q2 advanced GDP breakdown: stronger than suggested by the headline […]
It’s currently hard to hold tactical convictions on markets, given the many uncertainties related to (1) the gyrations of the US-Iran war, which influence the trajectory of energy prices and, by ripple effect, the stance of monetary policy, and (2) the AI theme dominating headlines, driving dispersion within the IT sector and concentrating risk. In […]
No flash of genius from the Messi(ah) or miracle for the wrestlers of the Albiceleste, who logically go down, but painfully, against La Roja. A deadly, dull match where the only real spectacle was the surreal, American-style halftime show… In the meantime, bombings, retaliation, offensive attacks and blockade have resumed in the Strait of Hormuz […]
No miracle for the Nati (Swiss soccer team’s nickname). Once again, the football gods smiled on Lionel Messi and his teammates, while Switzerland left the World Cup with the familiar cocktail of pride, frustration and the nagging feeling that perhaps the better team hadn’t necessarily won. Investors know also this feeling. So far this year, […]
