Category: Market updates by Fabrizio
Equities and credit are trading near their highs, but above that apparent calm hangs at least one genuinely uncomfortable thread: energy prices. The trigger isn’t hypothetical as the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively paralyzed since end of February, with daily tankers crossings down from about 60 to basically none, Gulf crude exports divided by […]
Sometimes the scoreline lies. Yesterday’s Serie A clash between Cagliari and Inter ended in a narrow, almost respectable 1-0 defeat for my beloved team. The kind of result that, taken at face value, suggests a tight, competitive affair. Dig into the underlying numbers, however, and a far less flattering picture emerges: 31 shots, 7 on […]
Last week, in Sticky Rates Despite Slippery Growth, we flagged a puzzle: US data was turning noticeably gentler (weak July payrolls print, in-line and reassuring CPI, and a surprise drop in July retail sales), yet the 10y Treasury yield refused to budge from its highs. If anything, the picture has grown more stubborn since. The […]
Three weeks ago, in Beware of Certainties (27 July), we flagged how hard it had become to hold tactical convictions on rates, with investors pricing in two Fed hikes before year-end on the back of persistent inflation concerns with hardly anyone contemplating a hard landing. Since then, the data flow has told a more nuanced […]
The second-quarter US GDP print looked, at first glance, like a disappointment: growth came in at just +1.5% annualized. But headline numbers can be poor storytellers. Strip out the noise, and the US economy is not slowing… It is accelerating where it matters most. US Q2 advanced GDP breakdown: stronger than suggested by the headline […]
It’s currently hard to hold tactical convictions on markets, given the many uncertainties related to (1) the gyrations of the US-Iran war, which influence the trajectory of energy prices and, by ripple effect, the stance of monetary policy, and (2) the AI theme dominating headlines, driving dispersion within the IT sector and concentrating risk. In […]
No flash of genius from the Messi(ah) or miracle for the wrestlers of the Albiceleste, who logically go down, but painfully, against La Roja. A deadly, dull match where the only real spectacle was the surreal, American-style halftime show… In the meantime, bombings, retaliation, offensive attacks and blockade have resumed in the Strait of Hormuz […]
No miracle for the Nati (Swiss soccer team’s nickname). Once again, the football gods smiled on Lionel Messi and his teammates, while Switzerland left the World Cup with the familiar cocktail of pride, frustration and the nagging feeling that perhaps the better team hadn’t necessarily won. Investors know also this feeling. So far this year, […]
After a breathless first half, the teams finally head back to the dressing room. The opening six months of 2026 have delivered enough twists and turns to fill an entire season. It all started at breakneck pace with the spectacular arrest of Nicolás Maduro, before investors were thrown into months of geopolitical suspense as tensions […]
After 38 prior proclamations that an Iran deal was imminent, a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) has finally been signed and oil prices have slipped back below $80 per barrel since then. For sure, a MoU is not a final peace agreement. Plenty can still go wrong in the next 60 days of negotiations. Yet if […]
Sport has a habit of reminding us that trends can reverse when everyone least expects it. This past week delivered another reminder. On one side, the ultimate “remontada”: the New York Knicks clawing their way back from the brink, ultimately ending a 53-year title drought and reminding investors, once again, that no lead is ever […]
