Filtri

Counting your chickens before they hatch

And here we go again for a new Italian Serie A championship with my favorite team, Cagliari Calcio, which kicked off with a good performance and a 1-1 draw at home against Fiorentina last night. If the championship ended there, Cagliari would be safe from relegation – which would be more than enough to make […]

Let’s speak about deflation!

A Fed’s rate cut in September rate is still far from guaranteed, in my views, especially after last week’s releases of US CPI and PPI reports, which showed that supercore inflation remains stubbornly high, running at 4% yoy and 3.8% a.r. over last 3M, while companies are passing some tariff costs on to consumers. In […]

Recession, inflation, both, or… neither

US growth is slowing, while inflation is rising. Despite the rosy US Q2 GDP print, the growth details weren’t so great when excluding the extraordinary distortions due to the tariffs’ saga: final domestic demand (i.e. consumption expenditures and capex) is running at about 1.5% a.r. in the first half of this year vs. a quite […]

I remember what you did last August 1st

Forget about the August 1st trade deadline… but beware of the incoming flood of economic data. It seems indeed that Trump’s tariff saga is finally coming to an end as another key trade “deal” was struck yesterday between the US and the EU. This agreement (how could you reasonably conclude a complete and detailed trade […]

The end of business cycle?

There are 2 important pieces of news this morning. The first one is Oklahoma City Thunder won the NBA championship title for the first time as they defeated the Indiana Pacers in Game 7 of the NBA Finals last night. An impressively tied & undecisive series won by a young but true and mature team… […]

899 is a joke

Today’s my editorial title is a reference to the Public Enemy 1990’s hit song (911 is a joke), which still resonates 35 years later… So get up, get, get, get down. 899 is a joke in yo town. As the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is currently debated and will likely be amended in the […]

You can’t have your TACO and eat it

Welcome to June! Looking back, I hope you didn’t sell in May -or at least not at the very beginning of last month as the US S&P500 index just experienced its best month of May since… 1990. The 2 main reasons behind the surprising sharp rebound of risk-on assets have been (1) a much better […]

Miracle on Wall Street? Eventually with less Trump

No miracle for the Cagliari Calcio -and subsequently for Inter Milan fans- last Friday evening as my favorite team lost “logically” against the Napoli. However, its “sustainability” in Serie A was already in the cards. The sustainability story has been somewhat less rosy as far as US government debt is concerned last week on the […]