Filtres

Time to take away the punch bowl… à la Berset

In July 2008, the ECB raised its key rate by 25bps, arguing that inflation had become the top concern of European citizens as oil prices were spiking. Two months later, Lehman Brothers collapsed and the world plunged into its worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. The ECB and its infamous President, Jean-Claude Trichet, did […]

You don’t turn a dolphin into a shark…

Last week’s rate decisions were really a story about tone, perception and thus credibility, as much as policy. The Fed delivered the hawkish decision markets had been braced for and then some: a 25bp hike to 3.75%–4.00%, its first increase since July 2023, passed by a unanimous 12-0 vote, a decision that came unanimously according […]

Annuler la dette française, une proposition aussi alléchante que dangereuse

Dans sa chronique publiée dans Le Temps, Alfredo Piacentini, Managing Partner de DECALIA, analyse les risques liés à la trajectoire budgétaire française et à la tentation d’un effacement partiel de la dette. Déficits persistants, coût de financement en hausse, pression sur l’inflation et la confiance des investisseurs : la situation française contraste fortement avec celle […]

Playing like a (economic) superpower

I’m on holiday this week and hadn’t planned on writing anything this morning. But between Cagliari’s start to the season and what’s about to happen at the Fed (and the BoJ, for that matter), the circumstances struck me as exceptional enough to warrant a few lines anyway. As I write this, interest rates aren’t the […]

The Energy Sword of Damocles

Equities and credit are trading near their highs, but above that apparent calm hangs at least one genuinely uncomfortable thread: energy prices. The trigger isn’t hypothetical as the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively paralyzed since end of February, with daily tankers crossings down from about 60 to basically none, Gulf crude exports divided by […]

L’occident est-il vraiment à court de missiles ?

Les grands médias américains s’inquiètent d’un épuisement des stocks militaires du pays, en particulier des intercepteurs défensifs avancés et des missiles de précision à longue portée, du fait du conflit prolongé avec l’Iran. L’Ukraine, quant à elle, subit presque quotidiennement des attaques aériennes russes à grande échelle et un manque d’intercepteurs haut de gamme la […]

Too much of a good thing

Sometimes the scoreline lies. Yesterday’s Serie A clash between Cagliari and Inter ended in a narrow, almost respectable 1-0 defeat for my beloved team. The kind of result that, taken at face value, suggests a tight, competitive affair. Dig into the underlying numbers, however, and a far less flattering picture emerges: 31 shots, 7 on […]