Catégorie : Market updates by Fabrizio
In meteorology, we often distinguish between the actual temperature and the feels-like temperature – the latter reflecting how the air truly feels on our skin once humidity, wind, and other invisible factors are taken into account. In recent months, the US economy has been behaving much the same way: the numbers on the screen (inflation, […]
As the Cagliari Calcio is still muddling through in the middle of the Italian Serie A standings after its defeat 0-2 against Bologna yesterday, it’s hard to detect any signs of exultation in me as a fan this morning. Considering politics, geopolitics, the state of the world in general, or just the weather conditions for […]
With no major economic data coming out of the US due to the ongoing US government shutdown, the earnings season kicking off this week takes on particular importance in these circumstances. What can we expect and what should we be watching for? The consensus expects S&P500 earnings grew 6% yoy in Q3-2025 Economic Calendar Without […]
After a week’s vacation, I’m back at the office. Although quite a lot has happened in recent days, including the US government shutdown, the strong rebound in the pharmaceutical sector (big sentiment relief after the deal between Pfizer and US administration), the resignation of the French prime minister, and the unexpected victory of a woman […]
Who would have thought it? After four matchdays, Cagliari Calcio is sitting in seventh place in Serie A following its 2-1 victory over Lecce at the weekend. It may not last, but it proves that smaller, less popular teams can spring surprises and outperform the big clubs that dominate the headlines. The same is true […]
Gold just broke above $3’600 this morning, a new record high. In the same time, worries over government debt sustainability, geo-political instability, central bank’s independence and inflation are broadening out. For sure, the US holds the upper hand, not only because it’s the largest market accumulating all these flaws but also because the policies of […]
While Cagliari Calcio is already slowly sinking into the lower reaches of Serie A following its last minute 0-1 honorable defeat against Napoli this weekend, another negative trend is currently causing me much more concern as a bond portfolio manager. This is, of course, the deterioration in French public finances, highlighted by the political instability […]
And here we go again for a new Italian Serie A championship with my favorite team, Cagliari Calcio, which kicked off with a good performance and a 1-1 draw at home against Fiorentina last night. If the championship ended there, Cagliari would be safe from relegation – which would be more than enough to make […]
A Fed’s rate cut in September rate is still far from guaranteed, in my views, especially after last week’s releases of US CPI and PPI reports, which showed that supercore inflation remains stubbornly high, running at 4% yoy and 3.8% a.r. over last 3M, while companies are passing some tariff costs on to consumers. In […]
US growth is slowing, while inflation is rising. Despite the rosy US Q2 GDP print, the growth details weren’t so great when excluding the extraordinary distortions due to the tariffs’ saga: final domestic demand (i.e. consumption expenditures and capex) is running at about 1.5% a.r. in the first half of this year vs. a quite […]
Since President Trump continues to act like a sheriff in order to restore law and order in the economic and financial markets, let’s look at the impact of his decisions and measures through the lens of my favorite Western film. First quarter US GDP growth headline was poor (-0.5%), but the details were not so […]
