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Catch me if you can!

Over the past few weeks, I have tried to show that US financial conditions may not be as restrictive as one might think, given the Fed’s swift rate hike since March 2022 (from 0.25% to 5.5% in 18 months). As a result, the US economy has proved much more resilient than expected so far. Among […]

Please, don’t mess up!

In a week overshadowed by the geopolitical tensions in the Middle-East after the terrorist attack from Hamas in Israel, the IMF’s latest economic outlook, released last week during the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Marrakesh, went almost unnoticed. While it wasn’t obviously as tragic as many events currently unfolding around us, […]

Something has changed

I think I have had another calling, like in the Netflix series “Manifest” (see my weekly letter of August 22nd, 2022), as I was feeling and I have thus argued that something was changing or has changed for some time now… Actually, it all started at the end of last year when I did a […]

Take it easy? Just wait for the not-so-cool second-round “kiss-cool effect”!

“Eppur, si muove”… Who would have thought it? Despite an increase of 525bps in the US Fed funds rate over the last 18 months, the US economic growth continues to defy rates gravity, as well as most pundits, showing resilience -to say the least-. Even more striking, financial conditions still remain broadly accommodative…, which is […]

Navigating through a CCC backdrop (Confusing, Contradictory & Challenging)

While China is facing structural risks from the 3Ds of Debt, Demographics and Deflation as recently coined by Morgan Stanley, the macro backdrop could be defined as CCC with economic data sending Confusing and somewhat Contradictory messages in an overall still Challenging context. Let’s take the latest US data released on Friday. Beyond the upside […]

Is this economy different?

In general, seasoned investors are wary when they hear or read somewhere that “this time is different”. Interestingly, there have been plenty of articles in the financial press lately about China turning eventually Japanese. With weakening growth and inflation already nearing 0%, the current 2nd largest world economy seems indeed on the brink of experiencing […]

Upside Down

One of the most interesting aspects of the markets since the start of the year has been that investors have been caught completely off-guard. Your scribe included. Actually, it has been completely upside down compared to the consensus expectations and positioning that prevailed in January: underweight in equities, long China on re-opening narrative, negative techno-long […]

Cowabunga

After the Barbie movie, it’s time for the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles to hit the big screen with their “Cowabunga” rallying cry, which by the way may also mean astonishment or stupor; has been adopted by surfers as a declaration of enthusiasm or exhilaration; or can be used for a battle cry. So, in the […]

Hop Schweiz!

On the eve of the Swiss national holiday, and after devoting my last week letter to the merits and, more importantly, the setbacks of the major economies and their currencies, it seemed obvious that we should take a closer look at Switzerland, its economy, its currency and its market. I received indeed many questions lately […]