Categoria: Market updates by Fabrizio
Heading into the right direction, but there is still a long way to go. So, it’s too early to claim victory as “it ain’t over till it’s over”. These sentences may apply to inflationary pressures, as well as the US debt ceiling saga or… the Cagliari Calcio! Yes, my dear readers, after more than 200 […]
As focus on US debt ceiling is intensifying in a context of higher interest rates and growing concerns about economic growth slowdown, the debt sustainability debate is naturally resurfacing. People are thus talking about it (again), but very few have a clue or do something about it because it’s a vast and complex matter. So, […]
So far, so good! Both US companies’ earnings and economy continued to defy downbeat investors’ expectations (included mine) last week. However, as I mentioned one week ago, US equity remains at risk due to its historical and relative stretched valuation, especially in case of any disappointments down on the road (weaker growth, margin compression, regional […]
1st of May… should your humble servitor work and deliver its weekly letter? The Labor Day is an annual holiday in most countries with several markets being closed today, Switzerland included. But here in Geneva, we are working while the public sector enjoyed a day off despite the current left government has just lost its […]
Markets have gone nowhere over the last few days, with equity indices, long rates and major forex crosses experiencing contained daily variations and an overall sideways trading after a strong start of the year for both equity and bond investors. That’s certainly a symptom of a lack of conviction among them about what comes next […]
There are several signs that the most acute part of the US banking turmoil may be behind us: markets have rebounded, the VIX is back to its lowest level since January 2022 (17.1), the amount of bank lending from the Fed emergency lending facilities has declined, US bank deposits are increasing again after weeks of […]
Food for thoughts or spurious correlation? Japan inflation driven essentially by… food prices in Tokyo Back from the dead? Japan CPI Housing Y/Y% BoJ inflations’ anchor, gone with the wind? Japan Consumers Inflation Expectations These trends aren’t BoJ friends Measures of Underlying Japan Inflation: Trimmed Mean CPI, Weighted Median CPI and Mode CPI Measures of […]
One year after the first Fed’s rate hike, the aggressive fast monetary policy tightening finally bit… What are the consequences on the overall macroeconomic backdrop from current banking-stress? While their magnitude and extent will obviously depend on the depth of these scars on the financial system, as well as the time to close it, we […]
Among Credit Suisse most valuable assets as of today What are the lessons to be learned and consequences from SVB fallout and CS debacle? I won’t be long today as there are still a lot of uncertainties in the air (i.e. I probably don’t know much more than you) and I have also to navigate […]
For the last few months, investors have been focused essentially on peak inflation and peak terminal rates, but little attention has been devoted to peak cycle since last summer as the soft landing and even the no-landing scenarios were almost taken for granted. However, the latest events, namely the collapse of SVB (and 2 other […]
For close to 40 years until recently, it has been a fantastic call to be long bond’s duration, especially through passive ETF’s investment in order to keep duration constantly high. For sure, we experienced a secular bond bull market with US 10y yield falling from circa 16% at the beginning of the 80’s to a […]
