Economic Calendar
While developments surrounding the war in Iran and its collateral damage on the Strait of Hormuz’s blockade, the potential damages to Kharg Island energy infrastructure and, above all, the energy prices trajectory will likely continue to steal the show, there will still be a few interesting economic data releases this week. They will provide either insights of where the economy was just before the conflict or a first partial appreciation of the magnitude of its negative impact on the business and consumer sentiment.
In this respect, the focus will be on the global flash PMI for March on Tuesday and, to a lesser extent, the German Ifo the following day. As far as consumers are concerned, investors will keep an eye on the consumer confidence indicator in Germany and France for March (Thursday) as well as the final reading of US consumer sentiment survey from the University of Michigan (Friday). Looking now in the rearview mirror, we will also get the February inflation figures – so just before the conflict erupted- from three economies where inflation was already running above their central bank’s target, namely Japan (Tuesday), Australia and UK (Wednesday). Staying with Japan, the “shunto” results (Japan annual wages negotiation process) are also due this week and expected to be as high as +5.5% for workers in the related labor unions… It means there could be additional upwards pressures on global rates -or not- that could destabilize further financial markets in this case assuming there is no clear improvement on the geopolitical front. Note that G7 foreign ministers will meet near Paris on Thursday and Friday, with the war on Iran on top of their agenda.
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